#Election2012 comes to a conclusion….statistical modeling wins again

I’ve written before that gut feel rarely trumps thorough and correct data analysis.  Nate Silver has proven to the world again that this is the case.  Regardless of your politics, looking back at his analysis throughout the campaign I’m not sure that many can argue that he wasn’t spot on.

The most common argument I am seeing today against his approach is that this shouldn’t be something subject to analysis like this because it’s a population choosing a President and the direction of the country.  It’s too important of an event.

To that I reply – that’s why it is so very important to use this methodology.  Bringing clarity and precision to an event of this magnitude can do nothing but help both sides and the electorate.  At all times you know when and where to focus.  You know where you are slipping and where you are excelling.  And on top of it we end the farce of both candidates having an equal opportunity.  If there is an underdog let’s at least let it be known.

So Nate, my hat is off to you and I hope that the attention sent your way helps you continue to advance what you are doing.

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4 thoughts on “#Election2012 comes to a conclusion….statistical modeling wins again

  1. “The most common argument I am seeing today against his approach is that this shouldn’t be something subject to analysis like this because it’s a population choosing a President and the direction of the country.  It’s too important of an event.”

    Ha! Did anyone make this argument before Nate Silver was around? Did anyone ask 24 hour news networks to stop putting pundits on the air because their “analysis” was putting elections in danger? How come this argument only materializes when someone starts doing it right?

    Hats off to Nate Silver for being a journalist and not an entertainer!

  2. “The most common argument I am seeing today against his approach is that this shouldn’t be something subject to analysis like this because it’s a population choosing a President and the direction of the country.  It’s too important of an event.”

    Ha! Was this argument wasn’t being made before Silver arrived on the scene? How come no-one pleaded with the 24 hour news networks to stop putting pundits on the air because their “analysis” was too damaging to the American political process? It’s dubious that this argument only materialized once a stat geek demonstrated how to do it right.

    Cheers to Nate Silver for providing journalism of substance rather than hollow entertainment!

  3. “Hats off to Nate Silver for being a journalist and not an entertainer!”

    Amen! That’s exactly correct. When the spin factories are allowed to control the story the truth gets too easily lost. In the race for the most viewers and inciting the most passion the news channels have lost their claim at being real journalists. This election turned most news stations into something closer to TMZ.

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