I’ve written before that gut feel rarely trumps thorough and correct data analysis. Nate Silver has proven to the world again that this is the case. Regardless of your politics, looking back at his analysis throughout the campaign I’m not sure that many can argue that he wasn’t spot on.
The most common argument I am seeing today against his approach is that this shouldn’t be something subject to analysis like this because it’s a population choosing a President and the direction of the country. It’s too important of an event.
To that I reply – that’s why it is so very important to use this methodology. Bringing clarity and precision to an event of this magnitude can do nothing but help both sides and the electorate. At all times you know when and where to focus. You know where you are slipping and where you are excelling. And on top of it we end the farce of both candidates having an equal opportunity. If there is an underdog let’s at least let it be known.
So Nate, my hat is off to you and I hope that the attention sent your way helps you continue to advance what you are doing.