Do you understand the risks and probabilities behind your #CRE recommendations?

There’s a phenomenal article up on Medium about the Italian Scientists on trial for failing to predict an earthquake (short version summary).  Largely the article focuses on the fact that it is incredibly difficult to predict certain events with any degree of certainty. It’s even further complicated by the fact that language itself makes it hard to communicate degree of uncertainty.

This same concept applies to nearly every recommendation made in CRE.  What is the likelihood that a certain market is actually the best option?  How closely ranked is one submarket to another?  Is this actually good seven year financials given market unpredictability?

Given all the uncertainty we have to deal with, how good are you at telling your clients that risk exists?  How well do you actually understand it yourself?  And even if you do understand it, how well do you communicate it to your clients?

If you aren’t comfortable with it, it may be time for a lesson or two.